What Jordan Love's and Tua Tagovailoa's extensions mean for the NFL draft

Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa are now among the highest-paid players in NFL history. The 2020 draftmates landed massive extensions within hours of each other on Friday. Tagovailoa agreed to the richest contract in franchise history to stay with the Dolphins through 2028. Love tied Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence for the highest annual average over the course of a contract at $55 million. He also received the largest signing bonus in league history at $75 million.

Of course, my mind immediately turned to the draft and what this means for the future of the league. Two more teams, while unlikely to be in the quarterback conversation in 2025, have ensured they will not be looking to draft a replacement with a premium pick any time soon. What these signings really do is shrink the already very small pool of potential free agent quarterbacks down even further.

Dak Prescott will unquestionably be the gem of the 2025 free agent class if he does not work out a long-term deal with the Cowboys. Justin Fields and Russell Wilson would likely be the next most sought after options, but one of whom is bound to sign a deal to return to the Steelers. Otherwise, Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Taylor Heinckie, Jacoby Brissett and a laundry list of other uninspiring quarterbacks are the top options.

Signing these two players to extensions is also an indicator of how both teams feel about the 2025 quarterback class. Arguably the most valuable asset in sports is a quarterback who is thriving while still on his rookie deal. If Green Bay and Miami believed it was possible to draft Love's or Tagovailoa's replacement and save all of that cap space, these deals might not get done; at least, not at the price point that they did.

Essentially, if you need to find a new quarterback, you either have to draft one early or give up a lot of draft capital to acquire one. Coming off a draft where six quarterbacks went in the top 12 selections, the league is clearly gearing themselves towards that line of thinking. However, drafting a quarterback in the first round has a very inconsistent hit rate.

While the 2020 class has panned out to be one of the best with Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts joining Tagovailoa and Love, the 2021 class featured five first-round quarterbacks, all coming off the board in the first 15 picks. Only Trevor Lawrence is still with the team that drafted him and the other four are headed for free agency next year because their fifth-year options were not picked up.

The 2022 class is far worse. Kenny Pickett was the lone first-round selection that year and he was traded to Philadelphia for some meager future draft returns. Brock Purdy is far and away the best of the group and he went with the last pick of the draft. We will have to wait a while longer to know about the 2023 class as well, but early returns have been all over the board. C.J. Stroud looks like a star and Anthony Richardson shows promise, but Bryce Young had an awful rookie campaign. The jury is still out on Will Levis as well.

The truth is, NFL teams don't want to find themselves in a position where they need to draft a quarterback or give up significant draft capital to acquire one. This is far from a groundbreaking revelation, but the deals being handed out make a clear statement. Looking at Tagovailoa's and Love's resumes, it is hard to argue that they were entirely deserving of the contracts they signed.

Tagovailoa is coming off a fantastic year in which he led the league in passing yards. However, he also threw 14 interceptions and struggled mightily in three straight big games for the Dolphins to close the season. It was also the first time Tagovailoa had played more than 13 games in a season in his career. There is a lot of risk for Miami in guaranteeing $167 million worth of this contract.

Similarly, Love looked fantastic for a good chunk of the 2023 season. He had 32 touchdown passes and led the Packers to their first playoff win since 2021. However, he had some growing pains and this was his first year as a starting quarterback in the league. Rewarding Love with a record-setting contract after seeing just 17 starts is a very bold move indeed.

That's the statement though. NFL teams believe that even if you are not entirely sure you have an elite quarterback, you cannot afford to have no quarterback. They do not want to be stuck searching for one. Despite the cautionary tales of what has happened with Derek Carr, Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones, teams are still handing out massive contracts, because that is what it costs to hang onto those players.

When you look at the dollar amounts associated with these deals, it is easy to get caught up in where they rank from a league perspective. Is Jordan Love the best quarterback in the NFL? Of course not, but neither are Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence. Is Tua Tagovailoa one of the top five quarterbacks in the league? It is hard to think so given his injury history and his inconsistency. Hard to argue he is worse than Jared Goff though, whom he narrowly edges out in terms of AAV.

The point is, you pay the price to keep the guy you have because it is better than the alternative. Could you land a Stroud and jumpstart your franchise? Absolutely. You could also draft Zach Wilson and waste years of talented playmakers and elite defense. Clearly, the Packers and Dolphins feel better about the prospect of continuing to develop the quarterbacks they have in house and navigating the roster constraints that come with such a high-priced player than they do about identifying, drafting and developing a rookie. It will only raise the level of desperation for teams like the Giants, and Raiders that figure to be drafting a quarterback in 2025 because it is quickly becoming the only option left.